Afrinvest West Africa Limited has projected that Nigeria will require an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of about 21.95 per cent, alongside an exchange rate of N1,500 to the dollar, in order to hit the government’s ambitious $1 trillion economy target by 2031.
This was disclosed in the firm’s 20th Nigerian Banking Sector Report titled “ACT-BOLD: Beyond a Trillion Dollar Economy”, unveiled in Lagos as part of Afrinvest’s 30th anniversary celebrations. The report placed Nigeria’s rebased GDP at N372.8tn, stressing that the growth benchmark would be critical to achieving the trillion-dollar milestone.
While acknowledging the optimism of President Bola Tinubu’s administration that the banking sector will play a central role in driving the target, Afrinvest cautioned that structural challenges must be addressed. Otherwise, banks may only deliver narrow gains across a few service-based industries, leaving overall economic growth subdued.
The report also examined recent monetary policy moves, noting that under Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso, benchmark interest rates were raised by 875 basis points to 27.5 per cent between February and November 2024, a policy shift aimed at stabilising inflation, strengthening the naira, and restoring investor confidence.
On banking sector recapitalisation, Afrinvest revealed that lenders have collectively raised over N2.5tn through rights issues, public offers and private placements by mid-2025. Access Corporation, Zenith Bank, Ecobank and Lotus Bank were identified as having already met the new capital thresholds ahead of the June 2026 deadline, while other institutions continue to explore mergers and acquisitions to stay compliant.
According to the firm, the financial services sector has remained resilient, expanding by 15 per cent in real terms in the first quarter of 2025, ranking among the top 10 contributors to national GDP.
Speaking at the launch, Afrinvest Group Managing Director, Dr. Ike Chioke, reflected on the company’s 30-year journey, describing it as one of “resilience, innovation and leadership” shaped by decades of global and domestic economic shifts. He recalled key turning points, including Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, the 2004–2005 banking reforms, the 2007–2009 global financial crisis, the 2014 oil price collapse, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Chioke emphasised that since its first publication in 2006, the Banking Sector Report has remained a trusted guide for policymakers, investors and financial institutions. “The 20th edition is both a call to action and a framework for Nigeria’s growth,” he said.
Afrinvest Chairman, Donald Lawson—represented by Professor Osita Ogbu of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka—noted that the organisation’s success is a story of “vision, courage and adaptability,” adding that Afrinvest’s growth from a single office in Lagos to five major cities across Nigeria reflects a legacy of innovation and resilience.
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